WEATHER generally see small puffs of cumulus developing during late morning, THERthese are a good sign that mixing is taking place. Also, the pattern log WEAlow clouds often gives a good indication of the pattern of the surface gusts, always handy if you’re racing. However – it’s not only windward shores that have an effect on the wind, particularly in summer when land heats up quickly. The SE side of the Island is the best place to see this, especially with a light to moderate S to ESE wind. As the Island heats up the air over it warms up too and expands, and any onshore breeze is to a certain extent made to climb up above this. This leads to a wide expanse of patchier and shiftier wind as you approach the Island itself, with the wind at sea effectively fitting up above the air expanding off the land. With a SE or ESE coming up the Eastern Solent the wide expanse of mud at low water in the harbours of Chichester, Langstone and Portsmouth can add to this effect. Looking at the Forecast Modern forecasts allow us to see a lot more detail than we used to be able to, and are a lot more reliable. However, they’re still subject to the basic rules of computer models – the smallest thing you can actually represent is 3-4 times the size of your forecast resolution. Which means even a 1km resolution forecast won’t be able to see something smaller than about 4km across, which means that the Hurst Narrows doesn’t show up, for example. This is why it’s a good idea that when you get you forecast, have a look at the wind direction and think about it using the point mentioned above, and make a note (mentally, electronically or even on one of those paper chart things…) of where you might expect more wind, less wind or a change in direction. On top of this, have a look at more than just a list of forecast wind arrows, have a look at a synoptic chart to see what is causing the weather today. Is it an unstable low pressure system, in which case the timing may be faster or slower, or is it a more stable Hugh, in which case conditions shouldn’t change so much. If you understand what’s driving your weather you can then know what to actually see during the day, and this will make your time on the water less surprising and a lot more fun. Paul Wyeth 24 solenthandbook.com